I tried to outline my experiences here:
viewtopic.php?f=4&t=24290&start=12viewtopic.php?f=4&t=24290&start=14Your experience may vary, but my experience has been that a probe on the outside isn't always as accurate as a thermowell. The probe on the outside seems to measure the temperature of the glass sometimes, not the actual liquid. It may only be at certain times, and only a few degrees, but that matters to me.
For $14.00 plus shipping, and the price of an orange carboy cap, you can know exactly what the temperature of the beer is:
http://www.brewershardware.com/16-Stain ... owell.htmlTo me, it's worth the price many times over. It's far cheaper than a batch of beer that didn't turn out as I wanted.